Can Tom Aspinall win the UFC Interim heavyweight title? — The data reveals all

At UFC 295, Tom Aspinall will attempt to win UFC interim title on just two weeks’ notice, but is the data on his side?

In a sport as poetic as MMA, over the years, we’ve witnessed fighters jump in at the last minute and deliver some of the greatest memories of our lives. Back at UFC 196, Nate Diaz rose to the challenge of facing Conor McGregor and locked in a rear naked choke that changed the landscape of the sport forever. In addition, just three events later, Michael Bisping concluded his Cinderella story, by overcoming fierce rival, Luke Rockhold, in a bout in which few gave him a shot. However, it doesn’t always work out so romantically.

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After an incredible war of attrition with Islam Makhachev back in February, Alexander Volkanovski desperately chased his opportunity at redemption. Alas, when it finally came, he had less than a month to prepare and ended up losing the rematch in brutal fashion, thus indicating that competing in a sport as violent as MMA without a full camp is anything but ideal.

As per Casino Alpha in the last decade, only seven of the 18 fighters who’ve challenged for UFC glory on late notice have come away the victor. But while at 39% the odds aren’t on Aspinall’s side, he’s a special athlete, capable of overcoming all the hurdles placed in his way.

Tom Aspinall wants to make a statement at UFC 295


During his contest with Curtis Blaydes last year, he sustained a knee injury that kept him away from the gym and could’ve mentally broken even the most hardened of men. However, in a testament to his awe-inspiring powers of self-belief, he bounced back against Marcin Tybura, securing a first-round KO to earn his shot at the belt.

Therefore, when he sets foot in the cage, with Sergei Pavlovich, in front of a packed house at the famous Madison Square Garden, in New York, USA, he’ll put everything on the line, in order to make all his years of hard work and sacrifice worthwhile.

Tom Aspinall will look to emulate seven of these contenders

Islam Makhachev VsAlex Volkanovski21st Oct 2023155lbsAlex VolkanovskiNo
Jamahal HillVsGlover Teixeira 21st Jan 2023205lbsJamahal HillYes
Deiveson Figueiredo VsAlex Perez21st Nov 2020125lbsAlex PerezNo
Deiveson Figueiredo VsJoseph Benavidez18th July 2020125lbsDeiveson FigueiredoYes
Kamaru Usman VsJorge Masvidal11th July 2020170lbsJorge MasvidalNo
Justin GaethjeVsTony Ferguson 10th May 2020155lbsJustin GaethjeYes
Khabib NurmagomedovVsAl Iaquinta7th Apr 2018155lbsAl IaquintaNo
Yoel Romero VsLuke Rockhold10th Feb 2018185lbsYoel RomeroYes
Max Holloway VsJose Aldo2nd Dec 2017145lbsJose AldoNo
Nicco MontanoVsRoxanne Modafferi2nd Dec 2017125lbsRoxanne ModafferiNo
Cris CyborgVsTonya Evinger29th July 2017145lbsTonya EvingerNo
Michael BispingVsLuke Rockhold 4th June 2016185lbsMichael BispingYes
Jon Jones VsOvince St Preux23rd Apr 2016205lbsOvince St PreuxNo
Conor McGregorVsChad Mendes11th July 2015145lbsChad MendesNo
Daniel CormierVsAnthony Johnson23rd May 2015205lbsDaniel CormierYes
Fabricio Werdum VsMark Hunt15th Nov 2014265lbsMark HuntNo
T.J. Dillashaw VsJoe Soto30th Aug 2014135lbsJoe SotoNo
T.J. DillashawVsRenan Barao 24th May 2014135lbsT.J. DillashawYes

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