Sophisticated mathematical model predicts this season’s final Premier League table

How this season finishes is very up in the air at the minute, as it should be, football of course takes a backseat with everything going on in the world.

That doesn’t stop the intrigue surrounding how things are decided and who finishes where.

We now know that no English football will be played earlier than April 30, as per a combined statement from the Premier league, FA and EFL.

That announcement did nothing but lead to more guessing on how things pan out. However The Times have published a report inspired by the ‘Elo calculation method’ – introduced by physicist Arpad Elo way back in 1960.

The technique was originally used to rank chess players and is now used by Fifa to rank national teams.

To put it simply, it offers a prediction based on the average number of points that a team would have earned in remaining matches while factoring in the strength of remaining opponents, as well as home advantage.

So how would things wind up according to the calculation? Exactly as they are now.


Liverpool would unsurprisingly finish top, passing the 100 point mark, City in second and Leicester third.

Bournemouth, Villa and Norwich would all unfortunately be facing the drop.

Here’s how the table would look.

1- Liverpool
Current points: 82
Projected points: 105.9

2- Manchester City
Current points: 57
Projected points: 77.8

3- Leicester City
Current points: 53
Projected points: 70.8

4- Chelsea
Current points: 48
Projected points: 62.9

5- Manchester United
Current points: 45
Projected points: 60.4

6- Wolves
Current points: 43
Projected points: 57.4

7- Sheffield United
Current points: 43
Projected points: 57.3

8- Tottenham Hotspur
Current points: 41
Projected points: 54.2

9- Arsenal
Current points: 40
Projected points: 53

10- Burnley
Current points: 39
Projected points: 51.1

11- Crystal Palace
Current points: 39
Projected points: 49.6

12- Everton
Current points: 37
Projected points: 48.4

13- Newcastle United
Current points: 35
Projected points: 46.3

14- Southampton
Current points: 34
Projected points: 45.1

15- Brighton & Hove Albion
Current points: 29
Projected points: 57.4

16- West Ham United
Current points: 27
Projected points: 36.3

17- Watford
Current points: 27
Projected points: 35.4

18- Bournemouth
Current points: 27
Projected points: 34.3

19- Aston Villa
Current points: 25
Projected points: 32.6

20- Norwich City
Current points: 21
Projected points: 28.3

Manchester United fans may feel a little harshly treated as that final push for the top four falls flat. The battle behind them between Wolves and Sheffield United is something else though, with just 0.1 points between the two.

Featured image credit: Getty